Experts anticipate that Coal India, the state-operated mining behemoth, is poised to announce stable earnings for the December quarter due to a slowdown in e-auction prices, analysts predict. The company’s financial results are slated for release on February 12th.
Analysts project Coal India’s net profit to be around Rs 7,173 crore, reflecting a decline of 17 percent compared to the previous year and 6 percent from the previous quarter. Net sales are expected to be approximately Rs 34,778 crore, down 5 percent year-on-year but up 2 percent quarter-on-quarter, while EBITDA is estimated at Rs 9,665 crore, marking a 13 percent year-on-year decrease and a 10 percent quarter-on-quarter increase.
During the third quarter of FY24, Coal India achieved a production output of 199 million tonnes, indicating a 10 percent annual growth, and sold 191 million tonnes of fuel, representing a 9 percent annual increase. JM Financial attributes this robust production volume to higher thermal additions and strong power demand.
The e-auction premium witnessed a decline from 150 percent to 70 percent due to sufficient coal supply. In the initial nine months of FY24, Coal India’s output reached 532 million tonnes, reflecting an 11 percent year-on-year increase, surpassing 99 percent of the FY24 target of 780 million tonnes. Analysts suggest that if this demand trajectory persists, Coal India could potentially sell up to 1 billion tonnes of coal by FY28.
In FY24, Coal India aims for a production/offtake of 780 million tonnes, a 77 million tonnes increase from FY23, contingent upon heightened electricity demand and improved rake availability. The company intends to undertake a Rs 60,000 crore capital expenditure over the next four fiscal years to achieve a capacity of 1 billion tonnes per annum. Despite the shrinking e-auction premiums, the quantity sold through auctions is on the rise, with analysts projecting it to reach 20 percent of the total value.
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